Gil Russell: Industry Forecast
Posted By
Van Smith
Date: March 2, 2002
Industry insider, DRAM expert and all around good guy, Gil Russell shared his tech sector forecast with us a few days ago. We value his prognostication skills since he has been uncannily accurate in the past. Here are his thoughts:
The Intel-Rambus fiasco has finally found the crater that so many custom built for it. Expectation is that the FTC will make a ruling regarding the behavior of companies in standards making organizations..., when this will happen is anyone's guess at this point. My guess is that it will probably be in the next several months. The bottom was hit in the third week of November with conditions improving at a rather steep 2.75-3.0% per month through at least February. March will be an interesting month as the tech sector will literally explode. The confluence of several factors now indicate that March will be the beginning of a fairly steep ramp in the tech sector..., corporate IP departments will begin to start buying and who have been nearly absent from the market for nearly 18 months..., consumer's need to upgrade as older systems are incapable of adequately supporting Windows XP..., the China market is heating up and will constitute a very healthy percentage of total sales. These factors when combined indicate that the overall industry is inadequately invested to take advantage of the growth potential now surfacing..., in a word "Shortage".
Now let's see if I'm on the money.
Indeed, several of Mr. Russell's points have proven to be on target in the last few days alone.
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